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This study evaluates global scour prediction models (HEC-18, Froehlich’s) for a pier on the White Nile Bridge in Sudan, hypothesising they underestimate scour in tropical rivers with cohesive sediments and dynamic monsoonal flows. Hydrological analysis, HEC-RAS modelling, and sensitivity testing revealed significant discrepancies: the HEC-18 model predicted scour depths of 0.83–1.52 m, while Froehlich’s model yielded 1.35–3.18 m. Both were substantially exceeded by a region-specific nonlinear regression model for the Nile (3.24–10.67 m), confirming the hypothesis. The results demonstrate that temperate-derived models fail to capture the White Nile’s cohesive clay-silt dynamics and flood-driven sediment transport. This can lead to underestimation, potentially resulting in bridge failure or collapse. The conclusion is that locally calibrated equations and adaptive mitigation strategies are essential for accurate scour risk assessment in tropical rivers.
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- Marta Kiraga, Anna Maria Remer, LOSS OF RIVER NATURALNESS – CAUSES AND CASES , Acta Scientiarum Polonorum. Architectura: Vol. 22 (2023)
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